Surging food demand
The world’s population will increase by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking by mid-2080s at over 10 billion, according to the United Nations. That means many more mouths to feed. And we are eating more: there is a clear increase in per-capita calorie consumption both over time and as economies become more prosperous.Our World in Data, October 2025
Yet while these same projections might have alarmed policymakers a few years ago, the agriculture industry now looks as if it has found ways to meet the additional demand.
Advances in science and technology don’t just make producing all this extra food possible; they make it realistic. The foundations of the nutritional supply will be staple crops - such as wheat, maize, rice and soya beans – whether as food for humans or as feedstock for animals.
The production of these four key crops is forecast to reach some 3.3 billion tonnes by 2034, a 70% increase from 2010.OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, July 2025Such growth is thanks largely to advances in biological fertilisers, pesticides and stimulants – natural substances that aid plant growth.
From chemicals to biologicals
This marks a clear shift from the previous half a century, when the focus was on chemical inputs. The number of active ingredients available for crop protection has increased six-fold since the 1960s to around 600. The chemical interventions have paid off: the yield from maize crops, for example, has more than tripled since the 1960s, from 1.1 tonnes per hectare then to 3.4 now.
However, this productivity boost has come at some cost to sustainability. The environmental and health impacts of chemical inputs have become much more apparent over recent years, such as water pollution and toxic effects on people and wildlife.
Fortunately, biologicals have emerged as viable and sustainable alternatives. They include biological fertilisers to improve soil microbiome and enhance fertilisation, biostimulants to strengthen plant cell walls and boost resistance to heat or drought, and bioinsecticides targeted at specific pests. Not only can these innovations reduce the negative impacts from chemicals, but they also have the potential to enhance yields by up to 100% from an untreated baseline.
Regulation and consumer pressure
This second revolution in agricultural productivity is just getting started. The adoption of biologicals as a key replacement for chemicals is broadening thanks to standardisation of their application and innovative new products. At the same time, the use of conventional agricultural inputs is decreasing as consumers increasingly favour organic or natural produce, and as chemicals become more tightly regulated. The EU has banned 2,000 chemicals in the past 13 years and plans to ban 5,000-7,000 more by 2030, while the US Plant Biostimulant Act reduces barriers for bio products, structurally tilting farmer adoption toward biologicals.
Then there is a strengthening economic case for biologicals, as rising chemical input costs (exacerbated by the war between Russia and Ukraine, as both countries were major producers of chemical fertilisers) weigh on farmers’ already slim margins.
What is more, with crop stress from drought, heat, and floods intensifying globally, biologicals have seen rising demand as they are better able to mitigate these risks, improving yields while reducing reliance on conventional inputs.
Studies show that up to 95% of applied chemical pesticides are lost to soil, water, or air, whereas microbial biocontrol products offer equivalent protection without contaminating ecosystems. Similarly, conventional nitrogen fertilisers emit around 2.2 kg of CO₂ per kg produced, potentially contaminating land and water.
Although conventional inputs still dominate by volume (the market for them was worth USD239 billion in 2024, versus a mere USD21 billion for biologicals), biologicals are growing much faster. They have achieved a 13% compound annual growth rate since 2000 and are forecast to continue at a similar pace, compared with a consistent 3% growth for conventional inputs.
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13% biologicals' compound annual growth rate since 2000
Investment insights
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Our environmental private equity strategy is focused on environmental solutions, so we want to find companies making a real, tangible contribution to solving environmental challenges.
We see strong potential in bio-agriculture, with the sector well-placed to address growing demand for food, demand for natural ingredients and the need to protect the environment. Our recent co-investment in Agronova Biotech – in partnership with Ambienta – is testament to this.
The company is one of the few scaled bio-solutions platforms in Europe. Its product mix is diversified and resilient, including biostimulants (products that enhance plant growth, nutrient uptake, and tolerance to stress), biocontrol (biological solutions protecting crops from pests, fungi, and diseases), and organic fertilisers.
Agronova’s organic fertilisers reduce nitrogen bioaccumulation in soils by approximately 36%, while biostimulants can cut fertiliser requirements by up to 50%, reducing both emissions and runoff.
The transaction was bilaterally sourced, offering exposure to a fragmented sustainability market where new competitors are limited by regulatory barriers. Our high conviction is based on Agronova’s R&D depth, a proven management team and aligned founder family, as well as the potential for value creation (including through global expansion, broadening the product portfolio and the possibility of merger and acquisition activity).
